After Venezuela, Iran: This Is Sequencing, Not Emotion

 

Venezuela is not about democracy, human rights, or Latin America. It is about energy security and war-risk management. Any analysis that ignores this is either naïve or deliberately misleading.

If the United States succeeds in imposing effective control over Venezuela, it gains access to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, precisely the type of heavy crude required to stabilize global markets in the event of a major disruption in the Persian Gulf.

In practical terms, this means pre-insuring the energy costs of a future confrontation with Iran.

Until now, the primary constraint on escalating conflict with Iran has been the fear of an energy shock: skyrocketing oil prices, market instability, and global economic fallout. Venezuela directly neutralizes that constraint.

With Venezuela under control:

• U.S. dependence on Persian Gulf stability is reduced

• Supply shocks from potential damage to Iranian or regional energy infrastructure become manageable

• Military pressure on Iran becomes politically and economically sustainable

In this framework, Venezuela is not a country. It is a strategic shock absorber for war.

From Tehran’s perspective, the implications are severe. Venezuela has not merely been a political ally; it has functioned as part of Iran’s extended geopolitical and proxy depth in Latin America. Neutralizing it weakens Iran’s ability to project pressure beyond the Middle East.

Security planners think sequentially:
First, dismantle distant proxies.
Then, concentrate on the core target.

That is why, if Washington succeeds in Venezuela, Iran automatically rises to the top of U.S. strategic priorities. Not out of ideology or rage, but calculation.

Conversely, if the United States becomes bogged down in Venezuela, facing sustained resistance and long-term costs, the equation changes. A prolonged crisis in Washington’s backyard drains political capital, stretches military resources, and delays broader power projection, including against Iran. This reality significantly complicates Israeli strategic planning.

The conclusion is blunt:
What happens in Venezuela is not local and not temporary. It is a precedent.
And Iran is already embedded in the logic that follows.